UFC on Fox 4: Shogun vs. Vera will be airing live on Fox, this Saturday, August 4th at 8 P.M.
The Nation went 2 of 6 in his last set of predictions, and is now 29 of 44 overall.
1) Mike “Quick” Swick (14-4) vs. DaMarques Johnson (16-10): Swick, a former top contender at170 lbs, has not fought in almost 2 and a half years due to injury. Before that, he had lost 2 fights in a row. Johnson is a former TUF finalist, also coming off a loss in his last fight. A healthy Swick has no business losing to Johnson, but health, stamina and ring rust are big question marks. I still see “Quick” pulling off a win though. Prediction: Swick by TKO
2) Joe Lauzon (21-7) vs. Jamie Varner (20-6-1-2 NC): Varner is coming into this with a lot of momentum after derailing the Edson Barboza hype train on short notice a few months ago. Lauzon is coming off a head kick KO loss to Anthony Pettis, after taking it to Melvin Guillard before that. Varner is a former WEC lightweight champion who seems to have regained his focus. Prediction: Varner with the decision win in an exciting fight.
3) Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida (17-3) vs. Ryan “Darth” Bader (14-2): Machida is a former champion at 205, with a unique/awkward stand up style which gives people fits. Bader is a power wrestler with a huge right hand; his best chance might be to catch Machida with that right hand as the Dragon darts in with one of his punches. Don’ t think that’s going to happen though. Prediction: Machida by decision
4) Mauricio “Shogun” Rua (20-6) vs. Brandon “The Truth” Vera (12-5-1 NC): Shogun is another former light heavyweight champion who just brutalizes people; 17 of his 20 wins have been by KO, and 15 of those 17 KO’s were in the first round. Vera was a former contender at both heavyweight and light heavyweight, but has not fulfilled the potential he displayed when he first started. Vera seemed to have a rocket strapped to his back which was going to shoot him to stardom, starting off 8-0 and was even openly talking about winning both the LHW and HW titles at the same time. But Vera had a contract dispute with the UFC in 2006, ended up not fighting for almost a year, and has not been the same fighter since he came back, as evidenced by his 4-5-1 NC record from that point. The violent aggression he displayed in early fights wasn’t there. That’s not a good mindset at all to be in if you’re in the Octagon with Shogun. The biggest question mark with Shogun is his stamina, if it goes past the first round, he tends to get blown up. I don’t think this is going past the first round though. Prediction: Shogun by KO